Jan 29 2008
Positive Signs From Florida’s “Meaningless” Primary
First of, I want to remind all of our readers that the Florida Democratic Primary was, for all intents and purposes, a “spring training baseball game.” Stole that one from Keith Olberman, but it’s fitting. Florida was punished by the DNC for moving up its primary without permission, and lost all of its delegates as a result. Even though Hillary Clinton responded like she had just won the Indy 500, the contest put the “M” in meaningless.
The good news is that Barack Obama made encouraging progress among Florida voters after both his lopsided South Carolina victory (that was a real one) and his endorsement from the Kennedys. The amazing thing is that he swayed many voters without ever appearing in the state. We’ve all heard that once you’ve seen Barack Obama in person, you’re on board. Anyway, this bit from the Huffington Post bodes well for Obama, and shows that he has Big Mo:
Yet a closer look at the exit surveys shows some notably positive trends for Clinton’s chief rival, Sen. Barack Obama.
Despite losing the state overall by 17 points, Obama actually won more support than Clinton from voters who made up their minds in the last three days (46 percent to 38 percent), in the last week (39-31) and in the last month (47-40).
Clinton did defeat Obama among Floridians who decided on a candidate on the day of the primary. But overwhelmingly, Clinton’s support came from those who made up their minds over a month ago (63 percent to 27 percent), and from early voters who used absentee ballots (50-31). Floridians began receiving absentee ballots in late December.
According to the exit polls, those early deciders and early voters made up fully 59 percent of Florida’s Democratic electorate.
The results seem to indicate that Obama picked up significant momentum in Florida following his victories in Iowa and South Carolina, as well as his high-profile endorsements (49 percent of Florida voters said Ted Kennedy’s support was important to their decision).
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I knew Hillary had a tremendous chance in Florida regardless of Obama’s recent momentum because they have such a large absentee ballot group (many of whom made their decisions before any of the primaries). Obama was still virtually an unknown, while Clinton has her name to fall back on. Just looking at it from this perspective makes his showing in Florida incredible.
Also, I know that the fact Hillary kept saying she wanted Florida’s voice to be heard and she would fight for Florida’s delegates to count played well with Floridians. Heck, if the DNC stripped all the delegates in Texas and one candidate kept saying he/she would make my vote count I would be more inclined to vote for him/her even if I truly favored another candidate, and I think that’s the mentality a lot of people there had. Luckily, it looks like an underhanded, sleazy tactic to the rest of the nation.
That’s exactly right, Justin. Also, when I think of absentee voters I think of blue-haired old women and military. Not many of those are going to break for Obama.
My prediction is when Obama wins the ticket, Florida not counting will be a huge factor. It shouldn’t count because they broke the rules, and that’s good. Why? Because Florida — full of seniors and latinos — is set up for Clinton better than any other state.
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