Feb 06 2008

The Only Spin: More States, More Delegates = Obama Win

So, my internet went down for most of the night tonight, probably due to weather. That hasn’t happened in months, then it happens on Super Tuesday. Go figure.

What’s unbelievable to me is how some of the media is spinning the Democratic Super Tuesday results as a tie. Seriously?

Hillary Clinton had ginormous leads in almost all of the Super Tuesday states two weeks ago, and Barack Obama walked away with more states and more projected delegates (MSNBC’s Chuck Todd has projected him as the delegate winner by a slight margin). Personally, coming into tonight I felt like a state tie and falling short by less than 100 delegates would have been a win for the Obama camp.

If Obama can win New Mexico, then he will win 14 states to her eight. If Hillary pulls it out, he wins states 13 to nine. Either way, it’s an amazing accomplishment for Obama. After all, at one point Hillary looked to be a foregone conclusion way before Super Tuesday. She even said herself that she thought she’d have the nomination wrapped up by Super Tuesday. Not so fast, Hill.

A couple of things happened. The biggest trend I noticed was that Obama cut the gap among Whites nationally. He also once again was dominate among Black voters. Additionally, he won by sizable margins in states where he had definite advantages . Meanwhile, he didn’t allow Hillary to really take advantage of her turf like he did in Alabama, Georgia, Illinois and Kansas. Then there were the six caucuses. Obama just dominated these contests, handing out political beatdowns in each one.

That last statement is crucial, because there are three caucuses this coming Saturday — Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington.

Obama has won seven of the eight caucuses thus far, and won the delegate battle in each one. The caucus process clearly favors him. He also has already started advertising in these states, and has more than enough money to keep doing so. Then you look at his ground game and grassroots effort. It’s just clearly superior to the ground game of the Clinton campaign. Washington is very liberal, and that favors Obama. And Louisiana is similar to Alabama and Georgia, while Nebraska is similar to Iowa and Kansas. He’s shown that he can win in states like these, and I believe he will.

After that it’s on to the Potomac Primary — D.C., Maryland and Virginia. Obama’s dough and Big Mo, along with the black vote, makes him the likely favorite in all three of those states. The Clintons might be able to be competitive in Virginia, but it seems like they are already turning their attention to Ohio, Texas and Wisconsin. If you ask me, that would be a dumbshit move by the Clintons. The last time they abandoned a state, Obama ended up winning by a ridiculous margin. Plus, he’ll have plenty of time to get to know the Ohioans and Texans before March 4. By that point he’ll also have a delegate advantage, even counting super delegates.

Hillary needs to stop Obama’s momentum, but I don’t think she can. I mean, how do you stop a movement once it gets rolling on all cylinders. Once the people themselves figure out they are the movement they’ve been waiting for. I don’t think you can.

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