Feb 09 2008

Significant Saturday Live Blog: Obama-Wan vs. Darth Hill

Significant Saturday (BTTF)

I’ll be on and off all day blogging on Significant Saturday — the Louisiana primary and Nebraska and Washington caucuses.

Things are looking pretty good for Obama for the most part. He’s won the delegate count in all eight caucuses, and Louisiana is very similar to both Alabama and Georgia when it comes to Democratic voters. Do keep in mind, however, that Hillary Clinton has advantages as well. Washington is heavily populated with females and Asians, and Nebraska is almost entirely White. This should be a good day, but by no means an easy one.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee just was declared the projected winner in Kansas by CNN. Which leads me to this question: How big of a threat can John McCain actually be when half of the GOP is fighting rallying around him?

Anyone else see that CNN Louisiana Democratic exit poll? This is the first time I have ever seen Clinton supporters more dissatisfied with Obama hypothetically winning the ticket than vice versa. I’m not going to be shy here — I chalk that up to racist Southern Whites. That’s all it can be, because what I’ve seen up until now has been the exact opposite. I know I won’t vote for HRC without BHO on the ticket, and even then I’d be conflicted because of her vote to authorize the Iraq war.

Barack Obama is up in Washington 66-33 percent with 27 percent of the vote in. The fat lady might not be singing, but she’s warming up her vocal chords…

More good news: Obama is up huge — almost 40 points — in Nebraska with over 70 percent of the vote in! They could call these any minute…

CNN has just called Nebraska for Barack Obama, and it looks like it will be a landslide victory. Huge win, because BHO will get the majority of the delegates!

It’s just bewildering that BHO continues to win these caucuses in states with lily-white populations by such wide margins. I mean, if he wins by 40 percent and was once down by 20, then that’s a 20-point swing. Simply amazing.

Washington has been called by the Wolfman. Now we’re just waiting to see the delegate counts and Louisiana. I’m thinking hat trick!

Still no word on Louisiana, but the exit polls look extremely good…

HAT TRICK! MSNBC has called Louisiana for Obama. It also looks like he will take the Virgin Islands…

Summing tonight up, it couldn’t have gone much better for Obama. According to MSNBC’s Chuck Todd — who I consider the Yoda of delegate math and projections — Obama wound up with 40 more delegates than Hillary tonight. The Obama camp says 45. Either way, he is up by 50-plus now in the pledged delegate count, and only trails HRC by 20-40 when super delegates are added in. Also keep in mind that there are still like 500 supers left out there who remain uncommitted. To quote Batman Begins, it’s all a bit technical, but the important thing is our country looks like it will end up in good hands. You lost tonight, Hillary. Big. Didn’t ya get the memo?

Let’s enjoy tonight and hope that we can get at least three of the next four (Maine and the Beltway/Chesapeake/Crabcake/Potomac Primary — how many names does that thing have?).

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7 Responses to “Significant Saturday Live Blog: Obama-Wan vs. Darth Hill”

  1. Justinon 09 Feb 2008 at 6:35 pm

    I LOVED the CNN analyst’s response to Hillary saying he was supposed to win. “SO? That doesn’t make it any less of a win! You don’t get extra credit for upsets, a win is a win!”

  2. Adamon 09 Feb 2008 at 6:43 pm

    And the margins are huge… we should get a ton of delegates here!

  3. Justinon 09 Feb 2008 at 8:19 pm

    I’m more excited today than I was on Super Tuesday. Each of these states is very different and he has shown that he can carry the support of a diverse group of people. I’m very proud today.

  4. Justinon 09 Feb 2008 at 8:21 pm

    I forgot to also mention the margins! Amazing. I await the Clinton spin - or clinspin. wow that was lame, haha, but I don’t care. Obama Baracked tonight!

  5. Walteron 09 Feb 2008 at 10:10 pm

    I agree with you Justin. Winning in LA, WA, and NE with dominating numbers means that Obama can win anywhere. Now we just need to do better the next fews days in the northeast.

  6. Adamon 09 Feb 2008 at 10:24 pm

    Justin, Walt, you guys head the nail on the head. Outside of the South, Obama does terrific with Whites — he even won Whites in California. The good thing is that there is a large enough Black population in the South to neutralize racism in the South. Plus, Obama wins the White under-30 vote there, too, which helps.

    If BHO can cut into Clinton’s Latino and working class support in Ohio and Texas over the next month — and he certainly has both the time and money, not to mention the track record that shows he can — this thing is looking good. Keep in mind that the only other time Obama has really had this much time to work on a state was Iowa. What will be interesting to see is whether he will focus on one state more than another. Really hard to say. I think he’s more likely to win Texas, because Houston is a lock and he will have more time to work on Latinos. Lots of college students as well, lots of affluent voters (more than Ohio at least), and Texas is known for its political independence.

    It definitely is getting interesting, but I am encouraged. Big time.

  7. DiattNutttageon 14 May 2008 at 5:34 am

    Hello my friends :)
    ;)

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