Mar 30 2008
Archive for the 'Delegates' Category
Mar 12 2008
Spun Out: An E-Mail From David Plouffe
Here’s a portion of an e-mail that Obama campaign manger David Plouffe sent me and countless others. Just thought that everybody needed to read this:
Dear Adam,
When we won Iowa, the Clinton campaign said it’s not the number of states you win, it’s “a contest for delegates.”
When we won a significant lead in delegates, they said it’s really about which states you win.
When we won South Carolina, they discounted the votes of African-Americans.
When we won predominantly white, rural states like Idaho, Utah, and Nebraska, they said those didn’t count because they won’t be competitive in the general election.
When we won in Washington State, Wisconsin, and Missouri — general election battlegrounds where polls show Barack is a stronger candidate against John McCain — the Clinton campaign attacked those voters as “latte-sipping” elitists.
And now that we’ve won more than twice as many states, the Clinton spin is that only certain states really count.
But the facts are clear.
For all their attempts to discount, distract, and distort, we have won more delegates, more states, and more votes.
Meanwhile, more than half of the votes that Senator Clinton has won so far have come from just five states. And in four of these five states, polls show that Barack would be a stronger general election candidate against McCain than Clinton.
We’re ready to take on John McCain. But we also need to build operations in places like Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, and Oregon that will hold their primaries in April and May.
The end of the portion I’ve included is especially interesting. The Clintons are talking up Pennsylvania like it’s the end all, but Indiana and North Carolina follow up a week or so later on the same day. Combined, the states have more delegates than Pennsylvania. Oregon is also an important contest, and one which Obama should win handily. I guess what I’m saying is this: Let’s not continue to allow the Clintons and the media to keep running their spin game on us, moving the goalposts and skewing the realities of this race in the process.
Mar 08 2008
The State Battle Nobody Is Talking About
We keep hearing about delegates, super delegates and even the popular vote when it comes to the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination, but what about states? Barack Obama has already won that war, which is why we probably aren’t hearing about it.
Now, BHO has won 27 contests to Hillary Clinton’s 14. One of his wins was the Virgin Islands, so let’s change the score to BHO 26, HRC 14. The Clinton camp keeps on saying that there are 12 contests left, but only 10 of those are states (Guam and Puerto Rico aren’t states) and Obama looks like he is going to carry Wisconsin. Make the score BHO 27, HRC 14 once again, with only nine states remaining. Hillary could win all nine and still wouldn’t catch Barack Obama.
This needs to be talked about. Why? Because while I have no doubt that Obama can win big blue states like New York and California, I just don’t see Hillary competing in red and purple states as well as Obama can, with Ohio probably being the exception because of its unique and unfavorable demographics. She’s also basically said that many states don’t matter, something that could come back to haunt the Democratic party in the general election should she capture the nomination.
My point is, the ability to win as many states as possible definitely matters. Shouldn’t it matter now just as much as elected delegates and votes (I still expect Obama to win both, by the way)?
Mar 06 2008
A Numbers Refresher
With all this bogus talk about Clinton momentum, lets’ take a look at the actual numbers as of today:
- Barack Obama didn’t lose any ground this week. Despite all the talk about Hillary Clinton’s big confetti–really, confetti when you are behind in a race that has a long ways to go?–victories, she only netted somewhere between plus-four to plus-10 delegates Tuesday. Obama netted plus-nine delegates in Washington D.C. alone.
- Barack Obama is way ahead in delegates. Even including super delegates, HRC is still at least 100 total delegates behind no matter who you ask.
- Barack Obama has won 27 out of 41 states. He has also won 13 of the last 16.
- Barack Obama is winning the total popular vote.
- Barack Obama crushed the monthly fundraising record by raising $55 million in February. HRC raised $35 million, and gloated about it for a week.
- Barack Obama beats John McCain 52-40 percent in the latest head-to-head poll. HRC only 50-44.
Who’s winning this race? Who still has momentum? Even at 3 AM those numbers aren’t fuzzy at all. Yes, we can!
Feb 11 2008
Obama Now Leads Clinton In ALL Delegates
Disregard what CNN — the Clinton News Network — promotes, because the truth is that Barack Obama now leads Hillary Clinton in total delegates. Yes, even with super delegates factored in. I’m not sure what numbers CNN uses, but you’d really have to completely fabricate them in order to give Clinton a lead at this point. Look at CBS News‘ count, for instance…
Feb 06 2008
Write the DNC — FL and MI Must Not Count!
From where I’m sitting, it’s looking increasingly likely that Barack Obama will soon overtake Hillary Clinton in total delegates and stay up. He has the momentum, the movement, the money and the rest of the schedule favors him as well. That being said, the Clintons will not surrender this nomination without a helluva fight. I can all but guarantee that they will try to get the disqualified delegates of Florida and Michigan to count before the nomination is decided. We cannot allow that bullshit to happen.
Personally, I feel like I’ve had two presidential elections stolen from me, and I will not suffer that fate a third time. That’s why we are writing the Democratic National Committee imploring them to keep the rules it imposed on Florida and Michigan, and not seat delegates until after a nominee has been selected. To join us in this cause and write the DNC, click here.
Feb 06 2008
Obama Wins Super Tuesday Delegates, 845-836
This is about what we expected when we went to bed late last night, but it’s still good news nonetheless. From Politico:
The Obama campaign attached an Excel spreadsheet containing “state-by-state estimates of the pledged delegates we won last night, which total 845 for Obama and 836 for Clinton — bringing the to-date total of delegates to 908 for Obama, 884 for Clinton.”…
NBC News, which is projecting delegates based on the Democratic Party’s complex formula, figures Obama will wind up with 840 to 849 delegates, versus 829 to 838 for Clinton.
I can’t wait for the beatings the Clintons are going to catch on Saturday. Yes we can!
Feb 06 2008
The Only Spin: More States, More Delegates = Obama Win
So, my internet went down for most of the night tonight, probably due to weather. That hasn’t happened in months, then it happens on Super Tuesday. Go figure.
What’s unbelievable to me is how some of the media is spinning the Democratic Super Tuesday results as a tie. Seriously?
Hillary Clinton had ginormous leads in almost all of the Super Tuesday states two weeks ago, and Barack Obama walked away with more states and more projected delegates (MSNBC’s Chuck Todd has projected him as the delegate winner by a slight margin). Personally, coming into tonight I felt like a state tie and falling short by less than 100 delegates would have been a win for the Obama camp.
If Obama can win New Mexico, then he will win 14 states to her eight. If Hillary pulls it out, he wins states 13 to nine. Either way, it’s an amazing accomplishment for Obama. After all, at one point Hillary looked to be a foregone conclusion way before Super Tuesday. She even said herself that she thought she’d have the nomination wrapped up by Super Tuesday. Not so fast, Hill.
A couple of things happened. The biggest trend I noticed was that Obama cut the gap among Whites nationally. He also once again was dominate among Black voters. Additionally, he won by sizable margins in states where he had definite advantages . Meanwhile, he didn’t allow Hillary to really take advantage of her turf like he did in Alabama, Georgia, Illinois and Kansas. Then there were the six caucuses. Obama just dominated these contests, handing out political beatdowns in each one.
That last statement is crucial, because there are three caucuses this coming Saturday — Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington.





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