Archive for the 'Polls' Category

Mar 06 2008

A Numbers Refresher

With all this bogus talk about Clinton momentum, lets’ take a look at the actual numbers as of today:

  • Barack Obama didn’t lose any ground this week. Despite all the talk about Hillary Clinton’s big confetti–really, confetti when you are behind in a race that has a long ways to go?–victories, she only netted somewhere between plus-four to plus-10 delegates Tuesday. Obama netted plus-nine delegates in Washington D.C. alone.
  • Barack Obama is way ahead in delegates. Even including super delegates, HRC is still at least 100 total delegates behind no matter who you ask.
  • Barack Obama has won 27 out of 41 states. He has also won 13 of the last 16.
  • Barack Obama is winning the total popular vote.
  • Barack Obama crushed the monthly fundraising record by raising $55 million in February. HRC raised $35 million, and gloated about it for a week.
  • Barack Obama beats John McCain 52-40 percent in the latest head-to-head poll. HRC only 50-44.

Who’s winning this race? Who still has momentum? Even at 3 AM those numbers aren’t fuzzy at all. Yes, we can!

[Digg] [Reddit] [del.icio.us] [Facebook] [Technorati] [Google] [StumbleUpon]

No responses yet

Feb 27 2008

Examining A New National Poll

I just saw on CNN’s Situation Room that John McCain is actually slightly ahead of Barack Obama in a new L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll–by two points, definitely within the margin of error.

First off, this is the first time I’ve seen McCain ahead of Obama in an eternity. But that isn’t the point.

The point is that McCain likely has a few advantages in this poll. For all intents and purposes, McCain is the GOP nominee. Obama is not quite there yet on the Democratic side. Additionally, Democratic-to-Republican turnout has been at least 2-to-1 so far during the primary season. Did this poll take that into account? I doubt it. I, for one, am certain Dems are fired up to vote come this November. Yes, much more fired up than Republicans. Also, most voters still know McCain better. That will change.

Because of the aforementioned factors, I’m not the slightest bit worried about this latest poll.

[Digg] [Reddit] [del.icio.us] [Facebook] [Technorati] [Google] [StumbleUpon]

No responses yet

Feb 04 2008

Obama’s Stunning Surges: Out in Cali, Here in the Show-Me

Man, this is really becoming effing unbelievable. I’m about as fervent of an Barack Obama supporter as you’ll find, but this has even surpassed my audacity of hope. On the other hand, I always knew that once people got to know this amazing man, they would quickly rally him enough. I was just worried about overcoming the establishment and entrenched special interest groups, not to mention the compressed schedule. I’ll tell you what — I’m not nearly as worried as I was a day ago.

From Reuters:

In California, Obama gained two points on Clinton overnight to lead 46 percent to 40 percent, with a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points. Obama wiped out a 1-point Clinton advantage in Missouri to take a 47 percent to 42 percent lead, with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points…

“The momentum is with Obama,” said pollster John Zogby. “If this trend continues it could be a very big night for him.”

Here’s a little more, from Op Ed News:

More from Zogby: “A very big single day for Obama in California (49%-32% over Clinton) and Missouri (49%-39% single day). In California, Obama has widened his lead in the north and pulled ahead in the south. He leads among Democrats and Independents, liberals and moderates, men (by 21 points),among whites, and African Americans. He holds big leads among voters who say Iraq and immigration are their top concerns. Clinton holds a big lead among Hispanics (though Obama has made some inroads), women, voters over 65, and has pulled ahead among those citing the economy.

One of the things I immediately noticed was Obama’s HUGE lead among Republicans in Missouri — 63.8 to 27. 1, more than two to one. This proves that Republicans: A.) Are definitely open to Barack Obama; and B.) Will vote against Hillary Clinton. We are going to do a huge effort tonight encouraging Republicans in swing-voting states to vote against Hillary. Watch out for that so you can help us get it out here in the last 24 hours.

[Digg] [Reddit] [del.icio.us] [Facebook] [Technorati] [Google] [StumbleUpon]

No responses yet

Feb 01 2008

Obamalinks: Things are Lookin’ Good!

  • The L.A. Times makes it’s first presidential endorsement since ‘72 — it’s Obama.
  • The post-Edwards race is a tie, according to Rasmussen.
  • MoveOn.org — which I’m proudly a member of — endrosed its first ever presidential candidate today. Yep, Obama.
  • Bill Richardson didn’t endorse Obama before Super Tuesday, but at least he didn’t endorse Clinton.
[Digg] [Reddit] [del.icio.us] [Facebook] [Technorati] [Google] [StumbleUpon]

2 responses so far

Feb 01 2008

Debate Winner “Overwhelmingly Obama”

Published by Adam under Barack Obama, Debates, Polls, Video

Gotta love this…


[Digg] [Reddit] [del.icio.us] [Facebook] [Technorati] [Google] [StumbleUpon]

No responses yet

Jan 29 2008

Obama Now Leads in Hispanic-Heavy Colorado

If this is any indicator of things to come — and I think it is judging from what I’ve heard out of other states — Obama might not only do well in Colorado, but also in crucial states like Arizona, California and New Mexico. From the Denver Post:

The Democratic caucuses hold more potential for high drama in the presidential race, with Colorado voters split evenly between Barack Obama at 34 percent and Hillary Rodham Clinton at 32 percent — well within the poll’s 3.5 percentage-point margin of error. John Edwards was the choice of 17 percent of likely caucus-goers. Fourteen percent said they were still undecided.

Obama’s strength in Colorado may come from the fact that the state’s Democrats see the desire for change as a driving issue in the campaign. The poll showed 51 percent of Democrats see change as more important than experience — and the ability to bring change is a trait they overwhelmingly associate with the Illinois senator

[Digg] [Reddit] [del.icio.us] [Facebook] [Technorati] [Google] [StumbleUpon]

No responses yet

Jan 25 2008

Go, Johnny, Go: Edwards Only Four Behind HRC

From Zogby International:

 Zogby S.C. Poll (Zogby)

(hat tip: Donklephant)

[Digg] [Reddit] [del.icio.us] [Facebook] [Technorati] [Google] [StumbleUpon]

3 responses so far

Jan 24 2008

WSJ/NBC Poll: Obama Most Electable Dem; McCain Beats Hillary

Look at the brand new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll results for yourself — Barack Obama is stronger than Hillary Clinton against the viable Republican candidates. He beats all four, and his margins are better for three of the four. Hillary fares better against only Mitt Romney, and by a mere three points. She actually loses to John McCain, while Obama is currently tied with the senator from AZ…

Poll (WSJ)



Judging from that info, a McCain or Mike Huckabee nomination would be pretty damn scary if HRC won the Democratic ticket.

[Digg] [Reddit] [del.icio.us] [Facebook] [Technorati] [Google] [StumbleUpon]

No responses yet

Next »