Archive for the 'Primaries/Caucuses' Category

Mar 12 2008

Spun Out: An E-Mail From David Plouffe

Here’s a portion of an e-mail that Obama campaign manger David Plouffe sent me and countless others. Just thought that everybody needed to read this:

Dear Adam,

When we won Iowa, the Clinton campaign said it’s not the number of states you win, it’s “a contest for delegates.”

When we won a significant lead in delegates, they said it’s really about which states you win.

When we won South Carolina, they discounted the votes of African-Americans.

When we won predominantly white, rural states like Idaho, Utah, and Nebraska, they said those didn’t count because they won’t be competitive in the general election.

When we won in Washington State, Wisconsin, and Missouri — general election battlegrounds where polls show Barack is a stronger candidate against John McCain — the Clinton campaign attacked those voters as “latte-sipping” elitists.

And now that we’ve won more than twice as many states, the Clinton spin is that only certain states really count.

But the facts are clear.

For all their attempts to discount, distract, and distort, we have won more delegates, more states, and more votes.

Meanwhile, more than half of the votes that Senator Clinton has won so far have come from just five states. And in four of these five states, polls show that Barack would be a stronger general election candidate against McCain than Clinton.

We’re ready to take on John McCain. But we also need to build operations in places like Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, and Oregon that will hold their primaries in April and May.

The end of the portion I’ve included is especially interesting. The Clintons are talking up Pennsylvania like it’s the end all, but Indiana and North Carolina follow up a week or so later on the same day. Combined, the states have more delegates than Pennsylvania. Oregon is also an important contest, and one which Obama should win handily. I guess what I’m saying is this: Let’s not continue to allow the Clintons and the media to keep running their spin game on us, moving the goalposts and skewing the realities of this race in the process.

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Mar 08 2008

The State Battle Nobody Is Talking About

We keep hearing about delegates, super delegates and even the popular vote when it comes to the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination, but what about states? Barack Obama has already won that war, which is why we probably aren’t hearing about it.

Now, BHO has won 27 contests to Hillary Clinton’s 14. One of his wins was the Virgin Islands, so let’s change the score to BHO 26, HRC 14. The Clinton camp keeps on saying that there are 12 contests left, but only 10 of those are states (Guam and Puerto Rico aren’t states) and Obama looks like he is going to carry Wisconsin. Make the score BHO 27, HRC 14 once again, with only nine states remaining. Hillary could win all nine and still wouldn’t catch Barack Obama.

This needs to be talked about. Why? Because while I have no doubt that Obama can win big blue states like New York and California, I just don’t see Hillary competing in red and purple states as well as Obama can, with Ohio probably being the exception because of its unique and unfavorable demographics. She’s also basically said that many states don’t matter, something that could come back to haunt the Democratic party in the general election should she capture the nomination.

My point is, the ability to win as many states as possible definitely matters. Shouldn’t it matter now just as much as elected delegates and votes (I still expect Obama to win both, by the way)?

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Mar 06 2008

A Numbers Refresher

With all this bogus talk about Clinton momentum, lets’ take a look at the actual numbers as of today:

  • Barack Obama didn’t lose any ground this week. Despite all the talk about Hillary Clinton’s big confetti–really, confetti when you are behind in a race that has a long ways to go?–victories, she only netted somewhere between plus-four to plus-10 delegates Tuesday. Obama netted plus-nine delegates in Washington D.C. alone.
  • Barack Obama is way ahead in delegates. Even including super delegates, HRC is still at least 100 total delegates behind no matter who you ask.
  • Barack Obama has won 27 out of 41 states. He has also won 13 of the last 16.
  • Barack Obama is winning the total popular vote.
  • Barack Obama crushed the monthly fundraising record by raising $55 million in February. HRC raised $35 million, and gloated about it for a week.
  • Barack Obama beats John McCain 52-40 percent in the latest head-to-head poll. HRC only 50-44.

Who’s winning this race? Who still has momentum? Even at 3 AM those numbers aren’t fuzzy at all. Yes, we can!

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Feb 12 2008

The Beltway Beatdown: Obama’s Best Performance Yet

Crabcake Champ (BTTF)

What a night! Man, this is without a doubt the single most impressive night of Barack Obama’s astonishing political career. Here’s an excerpt from the front page of Drudge that sums up his dominance:

In the Chesapeake Rout, according to exit polls in Maryland, Obama won:
Latino Voters By Six Points: 53-47
All Religions (Including Catholics)
All Age Groups (Including Seniors)
All Regions
All Education Levels
And Women by TWENTY ONE POINTS…

But wait — there’s more. Obama won the White vote in Virginia. Say what!? OBAMA WON THE WHITE VOTE IN VIRGINIA! I really can’t believe that shit. A Black candidate named Barack Obama won White voters in Dixieland. He also apparently won Latino voters in Virginia, a bigger part of the electorate there than you might expect. And let’s not even talk about how handily he beat her in the District. Not pretty for HRC. Not at all.

What I’m curious to see is how the delusional Clinton spinning machine will play this latest round of defeats.

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Feb 10 2008

Obama Wins Maine Caucus!

According to ABC News, Barack Obama has won the Democratic Main caucus. With 69 percent of the vote in, he leads 58 to 41 percent. His lead is growing, so let’s hope it grows some more so we can continue to rake in delegates!

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Feb 09 2008

Obama Sweeps HRC On Significant Saturday!

Significant Saturday Sweep

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Feb 09 2008

Significant Saturday Live Blog: Obama-Wan vs. Darth Hill

Significant Saturday (BTTF)

I’ll be on and off all day blogging on Significant Saturday — the Louisiana primary and Nebraska and Washington caucuses.

Things are looking pretty good for Obama for the most part. He’s won the delegate count in all eight caucuses, and Louisiana is very similar to both Alabama and Georgia when it comes to Democratic voters. Do keep in mind, however, that Hillary Clinton has advantages as well. Washington is heavily populated with females and Asians, and Nebraska is almost entirely White. This should be a good day, but by no means an easy one.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee just was declared the projected winner in Kansas by CNN. Which leads me to this question: How big of a threat can John McCain actually be when half of the GOP is fighting rallying around him?

Anyone else see that CNN Louisiana Democratic exit poll? This is the first time I have ever seen Clinton supporters more dissatisfied with Obama hypothetically winning the ticket than vice versa. I’m not going to be shy here — I chalk that up to racist Southern Whites. That’s all it can be, because what I’ve seen up until now has been the exact opposite. I know I won’t vote for HRC without BHO on the ticket, and even then I’d be conflicted because of her vote to authorize the Iraq war.

Barack Obama is up in Washington 66-33 percent with 27 percent of the vote in. The fat lady might not be singing, but she’s warming up her vocal chords…

More good news: Obama is up huge — almost 40 points — in Nebraska with over 70 percent of the vote in! They could call these any minute…

CNN has just called Nebraska for Barack Obama, and it looks like it will be a landslide victory. Huge win, because BHO will get the majority of the delegates!

It’s just bewildering that BHO continues to win these caucuses in states with lily-white populations by such wide margins. I mean, if he wins by 40 percent and was once down by 20, then that’s a 20-point swing. Simply amazing.

Washington has been called by the Wolfman. Now we’re just waiting to see the delegate counts and Louisiana. I’m thinking hat trick!

Still no word on Louisiana, but the exit polls look extremely good…

HAT TRICK! MSNBC has called Louisiana for Obama. It also looks like he will take the Virgin Islands…

Summing tonight up, it couldn’t have gone much better for Obama. According to MSNBC’s Chuck Todd — who I consider the Yoda of delegate math and projections — Obama wound up with 40 more delegates than Hillary tonight. The Obama camp says 45. Either way, he is up by 50-plus now in the pledged delegate count, and only trails HRC by 20-40 when super delegates are added in. Also keep in mind that there are still like 500 supers left out there who remain uncommitted. To quote Batman Begins, it’s all a bit technical, but the important thing is our country looks like it will end up in good hands. You lost tonight, Hillary. Big. Didn’t ya get the memo?

Let’s enjoy tonight and hope that we can get at least three of the next four (Maine and the Beltway/Chesapeake/Crabcake/Potomac Primary — how many names does that thing have?).

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Feb 06 2008

Republicans Help Obama, Hurt Hillary in Open Primaries

Stop HillaryYesterday we ran a campaign urging Republicans who disliked Hillary Clinton to vote against her in nine eight states (there was no Democratic Montana primary… yet… our bad). We figured that since John McCain was looking inevitable that, hey, it might work.  That being said, here’s how Barack Obama fared in those states:

  • Alabama - Win
  • Arkansas - Loss
  • Georgia - Win
  • Idaho - Win
  • Illinois - Win
  • Missouri - Win
  • North Dakota - Win
  • Tennessee - Loss

He won six of those eight states. Throw out essential homebase states — Arkansas and Illinois — and he won five of six. After taking a look at how he did in open primary Super Tuesday states, it’s hard to say that Republicans aren’t helping Obama at this point. I would be shocked if the numbers don’t support this apparent trend.

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